Should I Sell Now or Wait Until 2026?

It’s the question on every homeowner’s mind in Alberta: should you sell your property now while you can still secure decent prices, or wait for potential recovery in 2026? The answer depends on your specific situation, property type, and location—but understanding current market dynamics and forecasts can help you make an informed decision.

What the Current Market Tells Us

Calgary’s real estate market is experiencing a clear cooling trend through late 2025. Benchmark prices dropped 4% year-over-year in September, reaching $572,800. Inventory has surged to levels not seen since 2020, with months of supply sitting at over four months—creating a buyer’s market for the first time in years.

The shift is dramatic. After years of bidding wars and rapid appreciation, sellers now face increased competition for buyer attention. Properties sit longer on the market, and realistic pricing has become essential rather than optional.

However, not all properties are affected equally. Detached and semi-detached homes have shown relative resilience, experiencing more modest adjustments. Meanwhile, apartments and row houses face more pronounced pressure, particularly in areas with abundant new construction competing for buyers.

The 2026 Outlook: Reasons for Optimism

Multiple forecasts suggest 2026 could bring improved conditions for sellers. The Canadian Real Estate Association projects national home sales will rebound 7.7% in 2026, reaching the highest activity level since 2021. Average home prices are forecast to increase 3.2% from 2025 levels.

Calgary’s market is expected to stabilize through winter 2025 into 2026, with city-wide benchmark prices projected to experience minor fluctuations generally within the 1% to 3% range. Stronger submarkets may see slight appreciation, while areas with higher inventory could experience modest continued softening.

The rationale behind this optimism centers on several factors. Interest rate cuts are making homeownership more accessible, potentially unlocking pent-up demand that’s been sitting on the sidelines. Economic fundamentals in Alberta remain solid, with GDP growth projected at 2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026— significantly outpacing national averages.

By late 2026, much of the new construction supply flooding today’s market will be absorbed, reducing competition for resale properties. Rental vacancy rates approaching 6% in 2025 may drive some renters back toward homeownership as landlords offer incentives and rents stabilize.

The Case for Selling Now

Despite potential 2026 improvements, compelling reasons exist to sell sooner rather than later.

First, timing the market is notoriously difficult. While forecasts suggest stabilization, unforeseen economic shocks—trade disruptions, energy market volatility, or further immigration policy changes—could delay recovery or worsen conditions. The forecasting uncertainty acknowledged by multiple analysts means 2026 predictions carry higher-than-normal risk.

Second, if you’re a seller who needs to move regardless of market conditions—whether for employment, family reasons, or life changes—delaying risks both holding costs and the possibility of further price erosion. Every month you wait means additional mortgage payments, property taxes, maintenance, and opportunity costs.

Third, the seasonal real estate cycle typically favors sellers in the first half of the year. Listing in early 2025 could position you for spring market activity when buyer demand traditionally peaks. Waiting until 2026 means navigating an additional winter selling season before reaching optimal timing.

Fourth, if you own higher-density properties—apartments, condos, or row houses—in areas with substantial new construction, waiting may not improve your position. These segments face the most significant downward pressure and could continue struggling even as the broader market stabilizes.

The Case for Waiting

Conversely, valid arguments support delaying your sale into 2026.

If you own a well-maintained detached home in a desirable neighborhood with limited new construction competition, you’re better positioned to weather the current softness and benefit from potential 2026 appreciation. Properties in inner-city areas or stable suburban communities with strong schools and amenities show the greatest resilience.

If you’re not under any time pressure to sell—no job relocation, no urgent need to access equity—waiting allows you to avoid selling into a buyer’s market. The difference between selling at a 4% decline now versus at 2026’s potential 2-3% gain could represent tens of thousands of dollars on a typical Calgary home.

For those who would become buyers after selling, waiting might make strategic sense if you’re trading into a property type currently experiencing steeper declines. If you’re downsizing from a resilient detached home into a condo market facing significant pressure, the spread between what you sell for and what you buy might widen in your favor.

Property-Specific Considerations

Your decision should heavily weigh your specific property characteristics. Homes priced under $700,000 face persistent demand due to affordability constraints, supporting prices better than luxury properties. Well-located properties near transit, employment hubs, and quality amenities continue attracting buyers even in softer markets.

Properties requiring significant updates or repairs face tougher competition in the current environment. Buyers have selection and time to be picky. If you’re unwilling to invest in improvements, selling into a stronger market might yield better returns even accounting for the delay.

Geographic location matters tremendously. Cochrane continues showing price resilience, while areas in Calgary’s northeast and east have experienced larger year-over-year adjustments. Understanding your specific micro-market performance is essential.

The Bottom Line

There’s no universal answer to whether you should sell now or wait until 2026. However, general guidance suggests:

Sell now if: You have time-sensitive reasons to move, you own higher-density properties in oversupplied areas, you need certainty over optimizing price, or you can capture spring 2025 market activity.

Consider waiting if: You own a desirable detached home in a strong location, you have no urgency to sell, you believe 2026 forecasts will materialize, or the spread between your sale and purchase favors waiting.

Most importantly, consult with local real estate professionals who understand your specific property and market conditions. Broad forecasts provide context, but individual circumstances vary dramatically. A skilled agent can provide comparative market analysis showing how properties like yours are performing and help you make a decision aligned with your goals and risk tolerance.

The one certainty in today’s market is uncertainty itself. Whether you sell now or wait, make your decision based on your personal situation rather than attempting to perfectly time market movements that even experts struggle to predict.